Coherent weekly chart pack 2023 11 12
“Too many people were far too over their skis on the short side of both equities and bonds”
I just loved that turn of phrase, and couldn’t resist repeating it. Balance – on skis and in portfolio management – takes years of practice and continuous hard work. It only looks easy and from a distance.
Regarding the markets:
- I must confess to not having as good idea (in fact not much of an idea) of what is going on at the moment: the fact that ostensibly high-volatility price behaviour everywhere is not confirmed by the low-and-falling bond & equity indicators (Move & Vix) is unsettling. But …
- … more information does not necessarily ≈ better decisions.
At the moment I just see more of the same … a narrow market led by a half-dozen tech stocks. The dumb money making more than the clever money.
I’m going to say it again … more performance will come from risk management than risk taking this season. Have a framework which includes the troika of:
- How much (how much risk to take and what nominal exposure does that imply)
- What (what to buy or sell), and
- Then what (how to manage the current exposure – profitable or losing)