Coherent Commodity Matrix
Strategic Asset Allocation Calculator ("SAA")

Maps anticipated CPI and GDP deviation from consensus onto the Coherent Commodity Matrix to derive an indicative strategic allocation to commodities. Crude and robust by design — a discussion aid, not a precision tool.
1. Regulatory ceilingReg. 28 caps commodities at 10% for retirement funds; CISCA's proposed broadened definition aligns unit trusts to the same 10% commodity-wide ceiling
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2. Quant boundCoherent quantitative work suggests 2.5%–7.5%, depending on target return, volatility tolerance & time horizon
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3. CPI / GDP deviationConsensus is already priced in — what matters is whether the next print surprises below, at, or above it
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4. Matrix positionInflation × growth deviation reads off the matrix, rescaled to your chosen bounds for a proposed allocation
Economic data inputs
Consensus is already built into forward pricing — it's the deviation from consensus that moves the allocation. Capture a single forward view for each: is the next print expected to come in below, at, or above consensus?
Select the lower and upper bound to pro-rate the matrix against — regulatory limits, the Coherent quant range, or a custom range for an unregulated mandate.
Matrix position
Rising GDP & CPI result in increased SAA to commodities
Selected bounds–
Recommended SAA to commodities–
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How to read this

  • Inflation consists of goods and services — commodities are the goods. A CPI print surprising above consensus, alongside growth holding up, is the matrix's highest-allocation quadrant; both surprising below is the lowest.
  • This is "better or worse," not "good or bad": every cell is a valid, investable state of the world — the matrix simply reads off where commodities' cyclical beta is best rewarded relative to the bounds selected.
  • This is purely forward-looking: it recommends where to position for the future. Past and present prints are not relevant to the output — only the expected deviation of the next print from consensus.

What this doesn't do

  • It does not forecast CPI or GDP — the "vs. consensus" inputs are the user's own (or the desk's) view, entered by hand.
  • It does not account for client-specific risk tolerance or portfolio construction beyond the bounds you select — the lower/upper bound inputs are where that judgement enters.
  • It is a crude, robust guide by design — precision is not the objective.
This tool is a discussion aid for framing strategic commodity allocation conversations against the Coherent Commodity Matrix. It is not investment advice, does not constitute a formal asset allocation recommendation, and all inputs are judgement-based.